Sunday, February 06, 2005
Super Bowl Sunday
My NFL playoff betting record leading up to today's game is strong. I'd be ahead if it was real money. And, today is the last football game that matters until Labor Day 2005.
I'll have to look at college basketball lines to get my betting fix. If you've been reading in this spot, you know that betting on pro sports is risky. The NBA might be the most risky of all. As I get older, I like to minimize risk. I'm becoming risk averse. To me, betting the NBA is throwing away money. The games don't matter until the playoffs and 70-percent of the players aren't playing the game because of passion, but because of paycheck. That makes it hard to bet on nightly winners.
College basketball is different. Players want to win for their coaches and schools. The desire to win for the alma mater was bigger in the 90s than it is today because some of the blue chippers are marking time until the NBA draft. However, many of those blue chip guys skip the university experience altogether. The players wearing school colors choose to be there (maybe because they weren't ready for the pros) and they choose to win for the school and their fellow students.
That's why there's less variability on a nightly basis. Sure, there will be upsets, but it's a little easier to predict when they're coming - if you follow the game.
Pro baseball is a tough bet. It's all about the pitchers and you're still going to lose a few if using the pitcher method. Randy Johnson was fairly dominant last year when he was on the mound. But, he still had a .500 record. Clemens won the Cy Young and 19 games. He could have won at least 5 more games. Johnson had no run support. Clemens had no bullpen support.
It's still better to bet when Clemens is on the hill. I'm not comfortable laying money on Ricky Bottalico (although the Brewers gave him a salary). Parlay cards are also the way to go in baseball if you can get good pitching matchups.
As for the Super Bowl pick ... New England wins and covers the 7-point spread. T.O. won't matter and the Patriots will need to battle the talk of dynasty until they lose a playoff game - maybe in during the '05 season, maybe not.
Coming up next, the Super Bowl pre-game show with a sanitized half-time show. Love the culture war. It's not okay for Janet to flash a 40-year-old boob, but Gretchen Wilson's lyrics about "getting some" are accepted.
-30-
I'll have to look at college basketball lines to get my betting fix. If you've been reading in this spot, you know that betting on pro sports is risky. The NBA might be the most risky of all. As I get older, I like to minimize risk. I'm becoming risk averse. To me, betting the NBA is throwing away money. The games don't matter until the playoffs and 70-percent of the players aren't playing the game because of passion, but because of paycheck. That makes it hard to bet on nightly winners.
College basketball is different. Players want to win for their coaches and schools. The desire to win for the alma mater was bigger in the 90s than it is today because some of the blue chippers are marking time until the NBA draft. However, many of those blue chip guys skip the university experience altogether. The players wearing school colors choose to be there (maybe because they weren't ready for the pros) and they choose to win for the school and their fellow students.
That's why there's less variability on a nightly basis. Sure, there will be upsets, but it's a little easier to predict when they're coming - if you follow the game.
Pro baseball is a tough bet. It's all about the pitchers and you're still going to lose a few if using the pitcher method. Randy Johnson was fairly dominant last year when he was on the mound. But, he still had a .500 record. Clemens won the Cy Young and 19 games. He could have won at least 5 more games. Johnson had no run support. Clemens had no bullpen support.
It's still better to bet when Clemens is on the hill. I'm not comfortable laying money on Ricky Bottalico (although the Brewers gave him a salary). Parlay cards are also the way to go in baseball if you can get good pitching matchups.
As for the Super Bowl pick ... New England wins and covers the 7-point spread. T.O. won't matter and the Patriots will need to battle the talk of dynasty until they lose a playoff game - maybe in during the '05 season, maybe not.
Coming up next, the Super Bowl pre-game show with a sanitized half-time show. Love the culture war. It's not okay for Janet to flash a 40-year-old boob, but Gretchen Wilson's lyrics about "getting some" are accepted.
-30-
