Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Follow the leader
Everybody's speculating on what Michael Jackson is going to do ... Dan Abrams is yelling at me on the Today show ... Random strangers are interviewed in the Freeport, Ill. Journal-Standard. So, I feel I must weigh in with my opinion.
I think that Michael Jackson is going to announce a major world tour in late 3rd quarter. He'll hit the road around Christmas with stops in Asia (Japan, South Korea, etc.). Then it's Europe for a series of sold-out shows. This will help him make some money - as long as the tour expenses are reasonable. After that, there could be a U.S. tour early in 2006 with shows in places like the Toyota Center, American Airlines Arena in Dallas, United Center in Chicago. It'll be a high-priced tickets at smaller venues, but a guaranteed sell-out. That's the way U2 and Prince did it. That's the way Michael will be encouraged to tour. Avoid the stadiums as the production costs are high and there are too many tickets to sell.
After he grosses more than $100 million on a world tour - he should be able to command $1 million per performance since he hasn't toured in years - there'll be a concert DVD and show on either HBO or another network. That'll put more money in the Jackson treasury.
After a blitz in 2006, Michael can retreat to Neverland or Paris or Minot.
One thing he needs to avoid is to releasing a new record. There's no market for it in America. No radio station will play it. Michael doesn't appeal to an 18-34 year old and the contemporary stations probably won't add it into rotation. The song might get some interest at itunes.com or a similar distribution system, but that's not enough to justify the expense.
Michael needs to stay with what's proven - his old songs and his live performances. Maybe even bring Tito, et. al. to the stage for a few special performances. Let them sing "ABC" and the other hits. There's equity in the old songs and a car wreck factor in attending the show.
Tomorrow - the Viacom divorce ... Now, more dancing with the stars - the #1 show in America.
-30-
I think that Michael Jackson is going to announce a major world tour in late 3rd quarter. He'll hit the road around Christmas with stops in Asia (Japan, South Korea, etc.). Then it's Europe for a series of sold-out shows. This will help him make some money - as long as the tour expenses are reasonable. After that, there could be a U.S. tour early in 2006 with shows in places like the Toyota Center, American Airlines Arena in Dallas, United Center in Chicago. It'll be a high-priced tickets at smaller venues, but a guaranteed sell-out. That's the way U2 and Prince did it. That's the way Michael will be encouraged to tour. Avoid the stadiums as the production costs are high and there are too many tickets to sell.
After he grosses more than $100 million on a world tour - he should be able to command $1 million per performance since he hasn't toured in years - there'll be a concert DVD and show on either HBO or another network. That'll put more money in the Jackson treasury.
After a blitz in 2006, Michael can retreat to Neverland or Paris or Minot.
One thing he needs to avoid is to releasing a new record. There's no market for it in America. No radio station will play it. Michael doesn't appeal to an 18-34 year old and the contemporary stations probably won't add it into rotation. The song might get some interest at itunes.com or a similar distribution system, but that's not enough to justify the expense.
Michael needs to stay with what's proven - his old songs and his live performances. Maybe even bring Tito, et. al. to the stage for a few special performances. Let them sing "ABC" and the other hits. There's equity in the old songs and a car wreck factor in attending the show.
Tomorrow - the Viacom divorce ... Now, more dancing with the stars - the #1 show in America.
-30-
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